A Leadership Lens Grounded in Lived Complexity
The acronym CIRCA (Complex, Insecure, Rapid, Contradictory, Anxious) captures key components of modern strategic environments and highlights their interconnectedness.
CIRCA represents an evolution in strategic frameworks, moving beyond environmental analysis toward human-centered adaptability while providing actionable responses to complex challenges.
A dictionary definition of CIRCA subtly hints at the future of uncertainty:
circa
▶ preposition APPROXIMATELY, (round) about, around, in the region of, roughly, of the order of, or so, or thereabouts, more or less; informal: as near as dammit; in the ballpark of.
—OPPOSITES exactly.
Strategic Value of CIRCA
CIRCA provides a forward-looking framework integrating systemic complexity with human-centric challenges like anxiety and contradiction. This makes it particularly relevant for leaders navigating today’s fast-paced, high-stakes environments.
CIRCA Model © 2024 by Neil A Walker is licensed under CC BY ND
Why CIRCA?
In a world where VUCA and BANI only partially explain the turbulence, CIRCA offers a fresh lens — capturing not only the environmental conditions but also the internal dissonance leaders and teams feel today.
CIRCA in Action: Leadership Prompts
- Complex: “What might we be missing in the wider system?”
- Insecure: “Where are we over-reliant on brittle assumptions?”
- Rapid: “What can we learn this week that changes our direction?”
- Contradictory: “What truth lives in the tension we’re avoiding?”
- Anxious: “How do we support people when the world feels overwhelming?”
Key Elements
Complex: Systems are highly interconnected and adaptive, making outcomes unpredictable. Complexity interacts with insecurity by amplifying fragility in systems.
Insecure: Foundational structures (economic, technological, environmental) feel fragile and untrustworthy. This insecurity heightens anxiety and complicates decision-making in rapid change scenarios.
Rapid: Accelerating change compresses decision windows, forcing leaders to act quickly amidst complexity and insecurity.
Contradictory: Leaders face paradoxes and conflicting truths, such as balancing efficiency with resilience. Contradictions amplify complexity and anxiety.
Anxious: Elevated stress and uncertainty shape behaviors and strategies, influencing how leaders navigate insecurity and contradictions.
The future doesn’t ask for perfect plans — it asks for resilient people with a clear sense of purpose, a capacity to learn, and the emotional intelligence to lead through the noise.
CIRCA is more than a model. It’s a mindset.
One that embraces uncertainty not as a threat, but as the very terrain of leadership.