Beyond the Buzzwords: Reframing VUCA, BANI & Co. Through a Complexity Lens

Strategy has always been tough. Even in stable, predictable times, making long-term bets, aligning stakeholders, and navigating uncertainty wasn’t for the faint-hearted. But in recent years, things feel different — the ground is shifting faster, and the maps we’ve used no longer quite fit the terrain.

To make sense of this turbulence, we’ve leaned on acronyms: VUCA, BANI, RUPT, TUNA. They’ve helped name what we’re experiencing. gained traction as shorthand for the turbulent world we live and work in. They give shape to the storm — volatility, brittleness, unpredictability, and anxiety — helping leaders name the forces around them.

But is naming enough? Do these acronyms help us lead more effectively — or are they limiting our thinking?

Let’s examine them through a complexity and systems thinking lens. And instead of fighting complexity, what if we embraced it as our ally?

⚠️ The Rise (and Limits) of Strategic Acronyms

Each acronym highlights different dimensions of a volatile world. Here’s a quick refresher:

VUCA (Volatility, Uncertainty, Complexity, Ambiguity): Originating from the 1980s, VUCA highlights the need for leaders to adapt to unpredictable, disruptive conditions where conventional methods are inadequate.

BANI (Brittle, Anxious, Non-linear, Incomprehensible): Proposed in 2020, BANI aims to replace VUCA by addressing future chaos and its psychological impacts, offering insights into individuals and organizational needs.

RUPT (Rapid, Unpredictable, Paradoxical, Tangled): Used by the Center for Creative Leadership, RUPT encapsulates the unpredictability of current conditions but also has a positive interpretation: Reality, Understanding, Possibilities, Transparency.

TUNA (Turbulent, Uncertain, Novel, Ambiguous): Introduced in 2016, TUNA describes similar challenges to VUCA, emphasizing the importance of accepting change and thinking innovatively.

While they’ve each gained traction, they share some common shortcomings:

Acronym	Strength	Limitation
VUCA	Raised awareness of disruption and change	Tends to blend everything into confusion without action-oriented guidance
BANI	Adds psychological realism (anxiety, brittleness)	Leans toward helplessness — complexity is cast as chaos
RUPT	Introduces paradox and entanglement	Names symptoms but lacks frameworks for response
TUNA	Catchy and slightly fresher than VUCA	Still reactive — novelty is seen as threat, not opportunity

These models describe the storm, but they don’t teach us to sail the ship.

🧭 Enter Complexity Thinking: Models That Go Deeper

Where VUCA et al. stop short, complexity-informed models like the Cynefin Framework (Dave Snowden) and the Stacey Matrix (Ralph Stacey) offer more valuable ways of engaging with the world.

🌀 Cynefin: A Sensemaking Framework

Cynefin teaches us to diagnose context before choosing a response:

Simple: Clear cause-effect → best practice
Complicated: Cause-effect requires analysis → expert judgment
Complex: No clear cause-effect → probe-sense-respond
Chaotic: No relationship discernible → act to establish order

VUCA and BANI paint the world as uniformly confusing. Cynefin helps us make better decisions by knowing where we are.

🔍 Stacey Matrix: Mapping Agreement and Certainty

The Stacey Matrix maps decision-making terrain:

Close to certainty? Use analysis.
Far from certainty and agreement? Welcome to complexity — use collaborative sensemaking, experimentation, and learning.

These models shift our perspective from reaction to reflection.

💡 What Complexity Really Offers

Here’s the thing: complexity isn’t the problem — it’s the default condition of living systems.

Complexity is rich with opportunity — if we stop trying to fight or control it.

Where traditional strategy aims to predict and control, complexity thinking asks:

“How can we adapt, learn, and evolve faster than the system around us?”

✅ From Buzzwords to Better Practice: A Reframe

Here’s how we move from acronyms to actionable leadership:

If the world is…	Then lead by…
Complex	Sensemaking, collaboration, experimentation
Insecure	Building resilience, redundancy, relationships
Rapid	Acting quickly, learning fast, adapting often
Contradictory	Holding paradox, embracing polarity
Anxious	Creating psychological safety, modeling calm, purpose-driven leadership

This isn’t theoretical — it’s the foundation of effective leadership in the 21st century. I’m currently evolving the CIRCA Model, which offers a way of understanding and advancing organizational adaptability.

🧬 Systems Thinking as a Strategic Asset

Systems thinkers don’t just look at parts — they look at patterns, feedback loops, interdependencies.

They don’t ask “How do I fix this?”
They ask “What are the conditions that created this, and how can we change the system?”

In doing so, they unlock:

Greater adaptability
More sustainable decisions
Better collective intelligence
A deeper understanding of emergence (where small shifts can lead to significant change)

🔁 Final Thought: From Fragility to Flow

It’s tempting to see today’s world as broken. But what if it’s just complex, and becoming more so?

Rather than clinging to old maps or scary acronyms, we can:

Reclaim complexity as creative energy
Build leadership capability around adaptability, not certainty
Shift from trying to control systems to enabling them to evolve well

VUCA and BANI helped us start the conversation. But the future belongs to those who can read the waves before they break, and learn to surf complexity instead of drowning in it.

“In complexity, the goal isn’t to predict the future — it’s to become increasingly fit for it.”

I am currently developing my book, Ingenious Agility, which delves into twelve core themes of organizational agility. Each theme is explored through incisive questions that probe the cultural, operational, and strategic dimensions of agility. Central to this exploration is the evolving CIRCA Model, which offers a framework for understanding and advancing organizational adaptability.

The book is designed to equip leaders with the insights needed to architect organizations that not only withstand chaos but also foster ingenuity and sustained innovation. To bridge theory and practice, I ground these insights in real-world case studies—such as Microsoft’s DevOps transformation, which highlights the power of cultural change and cross-team collaboration, and Haier’s pioneering microenterprise model, which demonstrates how structural innovation can unleash entrepreneurial energy at scale. Through these examples, Ingenious Agility provides actionable guidance for leaders seeking to create organizations that thrive amid uncertainty and drive meaningful, lasting change.

NEIL WALKER