Turning Insight into Action in Uncertain Times

CIRCA diagnoses the condition.

CLEAR provides the lever.

Most transformation failures aren’t execution problems — they’re misdiagnosis. Teams apply generic “best practices” without reading the actual conditions. CIRCA-CLEAR fixes that gap.

Diagnosis	Response
CIRCA — Complex, Insecure, Rapid, Contradictory, Anxious	CLEAR — Clarity, Learning, Empathy, Agility, Resilience

Think of CIRCA as the diagnostic scan. CLEAR is the matched intervention — specific, testable, measurable.

👉 Learn more about : CIRCA →

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Why CLEAR?

Because diagnosis without response is just expensive awareness.

CIRCA names what’s blocking progress. CLEAR provides the lever that addresses that specific condition — not generic advice, but matched intervention.

What this is NOT:

• Not another leadership competency model
• Not a philosophy or mindset framework
• Not a replacement for your existing methods

What this IS:

• Single-lever discipline that enables organisational learning
• Tactical responses matched to diagnosed conditions
• 2-4 week testable interventions with rollback triggers

CIRCA names the lived pressures you face—tangled complexity, fragile foundations, rapid shifts, paradoxes, and anxiety.

CLEAR provides the treatment and helps build the leadership muscle to respond with focus, trust, and adaptability.

Not a rigid playbook. Not another set of rules.
If CIRCA helps you see the challenge, CLEAR helps you meet it.

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The Five CLEAR Levers

Each lever addresses one CIRCA condition. Apply the wrong lever and you make things worse. Apply the right one and signals improve within 2-4 weeks.

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Learning → for Complex

When system behaviour emerges from interactions nobody fully understands.

Complex conditions resist analysis. Three experts produce three root causes — each logical, none complete. The response isn’t more analysis. It’s structured experimentation that builds collective intelligence.

What to implement:

• 80/20 capacity split — protect 20% for learning activities
• Safe-to-fail experiments with pre-committed success criteria
• Parallel small bets rather than sequential big plans
• Timeboxed exploration (2-4 weeks) before scaling

What to observe: ThroughFlow stabilising as system behaviour becomes predictable. Fewer “surprises” in retrospectives. Technical disagreements resolving through evidence rather than authority.

Guardrail pair: Learning time protected AND delivery commitments maintained.

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Empathy → for Insecure

When trust deficit blocks candid information flow.

Insecure conditions hide problems until crisis. People know what’s wrong but won’t say it. The response isn’t demanding transparency — that deepens the deficit. It’s leadership vulnerability that rebuilds safety.

What to implement:

• Leader-first vulnerability — model the behaviour you need
• Explicit acknowledgment of past failures and their consequences
• Protection for early truth-tellers (visible, not just promised)
• Gradual expansion as safety evidence accumulates

What to observe: Human Pulse Safety scores rising. Problems surfacing earlier. Candid disagreement in meetings rather than corridor conversations. Best people re-engaging.

Guardrail pair: Psychological safety AND accountability maintained.

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Resilience → for Rapid

When pace overwhelms decision and delivery capacity.

Rapid conditions create the throughput paradox — working harder produces less. WIP multiplies. Context-switching kills focus. The response isn’t pushing through. It’s protecting capacity through WIP discipline.

What to implement:

• WIP limits — cap in-progress at 80% of finish rate
• Finish before starting — pull only when Done moves
• Protected buffer time (15-20% unallocated capacity)
• Explicit expedite policy with swap rules

What to observe: ThroughFlow rising as WIP drops. Cycle time decreasing. Late nights disappearing. “Nearly done” inventory clearing.

Guardrail pair: WIP limits AND finish rate trend.

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Clarity → for Contradictory

When competing priorities create impossible binds.

Contradictory conditions produce oscillation. Legitimate stakeholders have incompatible mandates. Consensus-seeking fails because genuine conflict exists. The response is forced ranking and explicit decision rights.

What to implement:

• Force-ranked priority list — no ties allowed
• Explicit decision rights — who decides when priorities conflict
• Visible trade-offs — what we’re choosing NOT to do
• Escalation protocol with time limits

What to observe: Priorities stable across sprints. Decisions sticking. Teams committing rather than hedging. Escalation loops breaking.

Guardrail pair: Priority clarity AND stakeholder relationships maintained.

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Agility → for Anxious

When uncertainty paralyses action despite available information.

Anxious conditions kill innovation through excessive caution. Every decision feels high-stakes. Review gates multiply. The response isn’t reassurance — it’s small wins that rebuild confidence through evidence.

What to implement:

• Time-boxed decisions — decide by Friday with available information
• Small reversible experiments — reduce stakes through scope
• Explicit risk boundaries — what’s pre-approved vs. needs review
• Visible success tracking — evidence accumulates

What to observe: Decision timelines shortening. Innovation proposals progressing. Risk appetite calibrating to actual stakes. Best people staying.

Guardrail pair: Decision velocity AND quality outcomes maintained.

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Single-Lever Discipline

Apply one lever at a time.

Multi-lever interventions feel comprehensive but create attribution confusion. When things improve (or don’t), you can’t learn why. Single-lever discipline enables:

• Clean cause-and-effect observation
• Faster learning cycles
• Confident scaling of what works
• Honest rollback of what doesn’t

Typical cadence: 2-4 weeks per lever. Design (2 days) → Execute (1-4 weeks) → Retrospect (2 hours) → Iterate or pivot.

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CIRCA-CLEAR at a Glance

CIRCA Challenge	What It Surfaces / What’s Happening	CLEAR Lever	Primary Tactic
Complex	System behaviour from interactions nobody understands	Learning	80/20 split, safe-to-fail experiments
Insecure	Trust deficit blocking candid flow	Empathy	Adaptive learning, Leadership vulnerability, protection for truth-tellers
Rapid	Pace overwhelming capacity	Resilience	WIP limits, finish before starting
Contradictory	Competing priorities, impossible binds	Clarity	Force-ranked priorities, explicit decision rights
Anxious	Uncertainty paralysing action	Agility	Time-boxed decisions, small reversible experiments

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Measuring Progress

Two signals. Simple tracking. 15 minutes weekly.

ThroughFlow — Work finishing cleanly vs. requiring rework. Measures outcome quality. Target: 70%+ indicates healthy flow.

Human Pulse — Team sustainability across three dimensions: Safety (can I speak up?), Energy (can I sustain this?), Purpose (does this matter?). Measures whether improvement is sustainable.

Why both: ThroughFlow without Human Pulse drives burnout. Human Pulse without ThroughFlow enables comfortable dysfunction. The pair keeps intervention honest.

Leading indicator value: These signals predict problems 2-4 weeks before traditional metrics (velocity, OKR progress, PI predictability) show degradation. Early intervention costs 3 weeks. Late intervention costs a quarter.

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The Book: Thriving in Turbulence

The complete CIRCA-CLEAR framework — diagnostic protocols, intervention playbooks, implementation roadmaps, framework integration patterns — is documented in Thriving in Turbulence.

Published November 2025 | Leanpub | Amazon

What you get:

• 5-minute entry diagnostic requiring no prior framework knowledge
• 25-minute team diagnostic protocol
• Pattern recognition tables for accurate diagnosis in 2-3 days
• Intervention playbooks with implementation timelines
• 18-month roadmap for building distributed capability
• Integration guidance for OKRs, SAFe, Team Topologies, ADKAR

Foreword by Giles Lindsay, author of Clearly Agile and The Adaptive Leader.

👉 Get the book → Leanpub | Amazon

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What’s Next?

If you’re already using OKRs, SAFe, or Team Topologies, start by asking: Where are we misdiagnosing the condition? CIRCA-CLEAR offers a fast, precise lens to find out.

Stay tuned for the evolution of CIRCA-CLEAR through ongoing research and thought leadership on the blog:

From VUCA to CIRCA: A Leadership Lens Grounded in Lived Complexity
Unlocking Leadership Resilience: Sharing CIRCA Under a Creative Commons License

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CIRCA-CLEAR ™ 2025 by Neil A Walker

CIRCA Fluency ™ 2025 by Neil A Walker