From VUCA to CIRCA: A Leadership Lens Grounded in Lived Complexity

In recent years, acronyms like VUCA, BANI, TUNA, and RUPT* have gained traction as shorthand for the turbulent world we live and work in. They give shape to the storm — volatility, brittleness, unpredictability, and anxiety — helping leaders name the forces around them.

VUCA (Volatility, Uncertainty, Complexity, Ambiguity): Originating from the 1980s, VUCA highlights the need for leaders to adapt to unpredictable, disruptive conditions where conventional methods are inadequate.

BANI (Brittle, Anxious, Non-linear, Incomprehensible): Proposed in 2020, BANI aims to replace VUCA by addressing future chaos and its psychological impacts, offering insights into individuals and organizational needs.

RUPT (Rapid, Unpredictable, Paradoxical, Tangled): Used by the Center for Creative Leadership, RUPT encapsulates the unpredictability of current conditions but also has a positive interpretation: Reality, Understanding, Possibilities, Transparency.

TUNA (Turbulent, Uncertain, Novel, Ambiguous): Introduced in 2016, TUNA describes similar challenges to VUCA, emphasizing the importance of accepting change and thinking innovatively.

But after a decade of working with organizations on the ground, I’ve noticed something consistent:

These frameworks describe the weather, but they rarely help you sail the boat.

Legacy models tend to remain abstract. They point to the problem but don’t guide us through the tension, contradiction, and complexity that shape our daily decisions — especially when systems are stuck, morale is fraying, or priorities clash.

I’ve spent the last ten years embedded with organizations — from enterprise transformation to frontline services — watching leaders and teams wrestle with both external disruption and internal misalignment. What I’ve seen time and again is this: we need something more grounded. More usable. More human.

Introducing CIRCA: A Framework Born from Practice

Out of that lived experience, I’ve been refining a new model. Not as a trendy acronym, but as a working lens — a way to make sense of the now and act wisely within it.

CIRCA — Five Lenses for Real-World Complexity:

Complex

Systems are not just intricate — they’re novel, adaptive, and unpredictable. They evolve. We need innovation as well as analysis.

Insecure

Beyond risk lies fragility. We face not only uncertainty (unknowable probabilities) but also ambiguity (unclear meanings).

Rapid

Change isn’t just fast — it’s turbulent. We must learn at speed, adapt on the fly, and make peace with impermanence.

Contradictory

Complexity often comes with paradox. Competing truths, priorities, and feedback require integrative, both/and thinking.

Anxious

Anxiety isn’t just an individual response. It’s cultural and systemic. Leaders must work with emotion, not ignore it.

The Strategic Benefits of Using CIRCA in a Rapidly Changing Environment

In today’s world, organizations are not simply navigating change — they are immersed in it. The terrain is shifting beneath their feet, shaped by overlapping crises, emerging technologies, disrupted ecosystems, and increasingly fragile trust. In such conditions, traditional models and linear responses fall short.

This is where the CIRCA model comes into its own.

Rather than offering vague generalities or buzzword diagnoses, CIRCA brings a practical, grounded lens to environments marked by rapid change, systemic complexity, and human volatility. Its strength lies in its ability to integrate systemic challenges with the human dynamics that influence how organizations truly operate — from the boardroom to the front lines.

Why CIRCA Matters

CIRCA is especially valuable in mission-critical, dynamic, and high-stakes environments — those in which success is shaped not just by strategy, but by the organization’s ability to sense, interpret, and adapt to conditions that may be:

Complex: Not merely complicated, but unpredictable, emergent, and adaptive.
Insecure: Full of ambiguity and uncertainty — where probabilities and meanings are both elusive.
Rapid: Shifting with a pace and turbulence that outstrip traditional planning cycles.
Contradictory: Characterized by paradoxes and competing truths that can’t be resolved with binary thinking.
Anxious: Emotionally charged, where fear, fatigue, and fragility affect decision-making and culture.

The Impact of Embracing CIRCA

Organizations that recognize and respond to these five realities don’t just survive — they evolve.

CIRCA provides a strategic lens through which leaders can:

Understand and anticipate emergent risks and interdependencies.
Foster psychological and cultural resilience within teams.
Make sense of seemingly conflicting data or priorities.
Navigate ambiguity with greater confidence and intention.
Sustain focus, morale, and adaptability during prolonged uncertainty.

By embedding CIRCA into their leadership approach, organizations cultivate cultures where people are not only able to cope, but are empowered to thrive, even when the environment remains unstable.

This results in:

Higher engagement, as people feel seen, heard, and equipped to contribute.
Improved adaptability, with faster, more thoughtful response to change.
Sustained performance, because the system supports both human and strategic agility.

I am currently developing my book, Ingenious Agility, which delves into twelve core themes of organizational agility. Each theme is explored through incisive questions that probe the cultural, operational, and strategic dimensions of agility. Central to this exploration is the evolving CIRCA Model, which offers a framework for understanding and advancing organizational adaptability.

The book is designed to equip leaders with the insights needed to architect organizations that not only withstand chaos but also foster ingenuity and sustained innovation. To bridge theory and practice, I ground these insights in real-world case studies—such as Microsoft’s DevOps transformation, which highlights the power of cultural change and cross-team collaboration, and Haier’s pioneering microenterprise model, which demonstrates how structural innovation can unleash entrepreneurial energy at scale. Through these examples, Ingenious Agility provides actionable guidance for leaders seeking to create organizations that thrive amid uncertainty and drive meaningful, lasting change.

NEIL WALKER